Ankura’s October 2026 Monthly Economic Tracker, “Resilience Under Pressure,” finds that U.S. consumers are still spending, with retail and restaurant sales up 7.0% year-over-year, and manufacturing is still expanding. But the strain is building. Inflation rose to 3.7% and now outpaces 3.0% wage growth, hiring slowed to just 29,000 jobs in September, savings are at a two-year low, and mortgage rates have climbed above 7%. For businesses, the message is to watch tariff exposure at the stock keeping unit level, control rising input and freight costs, and plan for household budgets that have less room for shocks.
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